Confirmed: Labour to launch Autumn EV consultation
Confirmed: Labour to launch Autumn EV consultation
Government will press ahead with 2030. But don't expect new incentives
Hello, I’m Tom Riley, and welcome back to The Fast Charge, a British EV newsletter.
The top story today… Labour plans to launch a new public consultation on its manifesto pledge to move back the petrol and diesel car ban to 2030. Details below, industry comments, and the Government’s response.
Elsewhere… Trouble at VW, rising EV registrations during Summer, and a video update from Tata’s Somerset gigafactory.
As ever, if you have any thoughts, please do get in touch via my contact details below or simply reply to this email.
Government set to launch new 2030 ZEV consultation
Summary: It had become a bit of debate across the sector – would the 2030 date be in the King’s Speech? Would Labour backtrack on the whole thing? Or would they simply announce it one day? Well, as first mentioned in this newsletter last month, I can confirm Labour will be launching a public consultation on the EV transition this Autumn – potentially within a month, and certainly before the Budget – to speak with stakeholders about its plans.
What will it cover? As per their manifesto commitment, Labour will be consulting on the timings around the EV switch. The government will propose moving the date for banning new petrol and diesel cars from 2035 back forward to 2030. As I understand it, Labour will not propose changing the existing ZEV sale trajectories – and by leaving them in place, if criticised by the Conservatives, they are protected by calls of pushing the transition too fast – as Rishi has essentially set the pace, Labour is just adding clarity.
Why consult? Given the industry already has the ZEV trajectories, you may think a simple announcement moving the headline date would be fine – especially to give certainty to the situation. Well, officials say – and as a former official I get it – that all policy changes get consulted on as a sort of ‘standard operating procedure’.
However… the consultation also provides the government with three opportunities.
Firstly… a chance to take stock and engage with industry – remember, many companies involved in EVs are also valuable to Labour’s wider industrial plans. In fact, I understand the government is keen to explore ambitious plans for manufacturing as part of a wider delivery of its industrial strategy. To note, the UK is hosting an Investment Summit in mid-October where Labour is likely to reveal more about its National Wealth Fund.
Secondly… Labour’s 2030 commitment is about cars. And, while under the current trajectories 70% of vans sold have to be electric by 2030, manufacturers have been struggling to shift them – despite grants being in place. So, the consultation may also poke questions around that – potentially resulting in ‘white van man’ getting more time than the 'Champagne socialists of Hampstead’. To me, this could help Labour keep traditionally Tory media (The Sun, Daily Mail, The Times) at bay. Although, when looking at the change alongside the private school VAT rises (and who knows what else at Budget), it could look like Labour adding another string to a whip on Britain’s high-achieving families.
Lastly… I understand a critical part of the consultation will be on the role hybrids play between 2030 to 2035. Only last week, Labour’s EV Minister said that “all new cars and vans sold will be zero emission” by 2035. With EV demand undoubtedly having cooled this year, many carmakers want to see flexibility on the five years from 2030. Only this past week, for example, Volvo pulled back on its plan to be fully electric by 2030, suggesting its gap will be made up of hybrids.
Are hybrids helpful? It’s a contentious area, with some carmakers suggesting plug-in hybrids – cars that typically have batteries capable of 20-30 miles – being most preferable for the 2030-35 gap. However, Ian Plummer, Commercial Director of Auto Trader, seems not persuaded. “We believe the commitment to electric must be redoubled. PHEVs may well be part of the solution for some drivers and carmakers but ultimately, we need to put the brakes on carbon and we can get there faster by building on the demand for electric cars that we clearly see when the price is right.” Auto Trader also told me that, on their marketplace, there are currently no PHEV models available in the new car market for under £30,000 – so it’s not like they are cheaper than EVs.
When will we hear more? The consultation is only expected to be open for a short time - the window could be as little as 4 weeks. I have seen correspondence suggesting the government wants the whole thing sewn up by the end of this year. And, to be honest, that feels essential, as industry leaders suggest any time longer just creates more uncertainty for them and consumers.
What won’t come from it? While Mike Hawes, who leads the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, has repeatedly said the UK needs “meaningful incentives” to take EVs to the mass market, I’m told it’s very unlikely Labour will introduce new incentives (such as grants) to help get drivers into EVs. There is a belief within government that the private market is now largely operating under its own steam.
A Government spokesperson did not deny the consultation and told me… “We are committed to supporting drivers and manufacturers, as we phase out the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030. There are already a range of incentives to help people switch and we will continue to engage with industry around the changes.” On the last line, they also pointed out to me the UK already had a range of measures from benefit-in-kind, existing grants, and local authority funding for new chargers as clear examples of where they are incentivising.
From the renewable energy sector… Matt Adams, Transport Policy Manager at the REA, told me: “This consultation will provide the sector with a crucial chance to achieve the greatest levels of decarbonisation for cars. For vans we recognise there may be more difficulty and we welcome any moves that will support the van sector. It's also good to see the Government provide certainty to consumers and manufacturers through this consultation by setting out the remaining requirements up to 2035.”
At the end of the day… some in the sector will be frustrated that this consultation may reopen old wounds. But, the good news is Britain’s EV Minister, Lilian Greenwood, said concretely at Cenex last week: “By 2030 there will be no new cars relying solely on internal combustion engines. That’s the headline on the poster – print it in bold – 2030.” This strength of wording is a positive split from the past year – even if there are rumours Greenwood took over 50 days to sit down with her department’s EV team…
Other quick stories…
⚡ Last week at Millbrook, Cenex and Vauxhall launched a joint call for better EV charging metrics. Their report presented three new metrics suggested to be more effective at tracking progress across three types of public charging: Near Home Charging, Destination Charging and Journey Charging (Read more).
🚗 A new report published by EY today – based on more than 19,000 respondents from 28 countries – revealed the main factors influencing potential EV buyers’ perceptions in Europe are high fuel prices (36%), followed by environmental concerns (32%) and increases in the range EV can travel before needing to recharge (26%) – great to see that range anxiety slipping down the list!
🏭 Talking of Volvo above, Volkswagen had a pretty torrid time last week after the CEO announced it may have to shutter some factories otherwise it won’t meet the cost-cutting goals it needs to remain competitive in the market. At German carmakers, unions are very powerful, so it will be interesting to see what happens next on this. Read more.
🔋 Last week, Agratas (set up by Tata), who are building a gigafactory in Somerset, posted a drone video update of their site progress. Watch here.
🎉 MG, one of the most popular and affordable EV brands in the UK, is set to launch it’s first electric car with a solid-state battery in 2025. These batteries are capable of being smaller but packing more mileage punch. Read more.
📈 Registrations of EVs increased 10.8% over the summer according to the latest SMMT data. Market share in August reached 22.6%, the highest for a month since December 2022. Read more.
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Nice to see progress from Tata. Hopefully we will secure more battery manufacturing deals in the future.
Our manufacturers have failed wit PHEVs. BYD is price matching ICE with theirs, and prices start at $13k for the Qin L, a Mondeo sized saloon car with a 80km electric range, and 80mpg when using petrol alone. Now they are belatedly buying in Chinese technology, but they have had eight years to prepare and done nothing.